Obama: Expensive Revolution
February 15, 2008
The excitement surrounding the Obama campaign is intoxicating. The number of traditional Republicans considering Obama as a viable alternative to McCain is shocking. The truth is, very few Republicans consider McCain to be a true Republican. In Arizona, exit polls showed McCain won a majority of votes cast by Democrats over Starky (his Democrat opponent) in the last Senate race.
Obama is an appealing candidate. I honestly believe electing an African American would send a message around the world that America truly is the greatest country in the world. But at what cost? If you have reviewed Obama’s tax plan you understand that it will be a VERY expensive message. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the plan here it is (from WSJ):
39.6 percent personal income tax,
52.2 percent combined income and payroll tax
28 percent capital-gains tax,
39.6 percent dividends tax,
and a 55 percent estate tax.
If Obama gets his way I WILL change my behavior. My businesses WILL change their behavior. I am afraid that his tax policy will not only cost me more money on its face (something I could get over), but that it will severely impact the macro economy. Lawrence Kudlow explains,
A President Obama would steer us in the social-market direction of Western Europe, which has produced only stagnant economies down through the years. It would be quite an irony. While newly emerging nations in Eastern Europe and Asia are lowering the tax penalties on capital — and reaping the economic rewards — Obama would raise them.
Russia has lit a fire under their economy, and don’t fool yourself that it is all about oil, Putin lowered tax rates to a flat 15% and as a result tax revenues have increased ten fold. Get that? RUSSIA implemented a flat tax before we did? Kennedy figured this out (remember that rising tide lifts all boats commentary?) in the 60s when he lowered taxes. Reagan figured this out in the 80s when he lowered taxes. But here we are in 2008 considering a candidate that thinks taxing capital will increase revenues. Um, capital formation is the only way we have been able to build these cool businesses that employ the cool people that pay the cool taxes we collect. Screw up the capital side and the smartest most ambitious people on the planet won’t be able to fix anything.
My point? I am not sure. I would love to vote for Obama if he would simply agree to keep spending in line (i.e. he would agree not to increase it over current levels) and keep tax rates fixed. I think it would he would be great for the U.S. and for the world at large. If Obama agrees we can deliver the Republican votes he will need to win ~ McCain has given so much to this country, it is time for us to let him retire. Don’t make him serve the last days of his life saving us from Obama’s misguided tax policy.
We need more immigrants. . .
February 14, 2008
In 2006 I decided to put my own immigration proposal in writing. The comments were less than supportive. Specifically, my critics cite economic pressures such as the trade imbalance as reasons we need to retrench and prevent immigrants from taking jobs from Americans. What they fail to realize is that these new immigrants represent the best and the brightest from every corner of the world. We should be welcoming immigrants because they are our greatest asset.
When my ancestors left Europe they were joined by the smartest and most ambitious Europeans. This was good for America. Just take a look at Europes population (double that of the U.S.) and their GDP (approximately the same as the U.S.). Two hundred years ago we started out with very few people and less GDP than Portugal. Today we live in the most prosperous civilization in the history of the planet.
Our biggest risk is the possibility of the United States turning into Europe, e.g. declining population and declining percapita GDP. We need to rethink our policy of limiting immigration. Lets start by allowing the most intelligent and well-educated people from the world become citizens. For every engineer, doctor or programmer that leaves China, India or Russia, the more competitive we become in medicine, technology and science. We should be recruiting the these people, not figuring out how to keep them out.
Berkeley to Marines, “We were just kidding…”
February 5, 2008
One week after the City Council of Berkeley wrote a letter the Marine Corp suggesting they were no longer welcome in the city, specifically suggesting that the USMC should remove their city’s recruiting center, the council is reconsidering their position. Why? Turns out lots of people in the Berkeley have sons and daughters in the Marine Corp. Who knew? The City Council’s letter pissed off a BUNCH of folks including, um, CONGRESS who discussed cutting off all federal funds for Berkeley, including lunch programs, ferry service and UC Berkeley. Oops.
Berkeley has produced a number a very fine Marines, including Michael Heyman who served during the Korean War. After he hung up his Mameluke sword Heyman served as law clerk to Chief Justice Earl Warren, as the chancellor of the University of California at Berkeley and finally as the CEO of the Smithsonian Institution. Today he is an Emeritus Professor of Law and of City and Regional Planning at UC Berkeley. Too bad Councilwoman Spring didn’t stop by the University to chat with Heyman about her idea. Perhaps she would have realized that the Marines are not the problem ~ politicians are (oh and Dona, you are a politician too). that’s my bootcamp picture, wow how time flies…
Newsflash! Entrepreneurs are richer. . .
January 31, 2008
After considerable research Harvard has uncovered an amazing fact: “Entrepreneurs are, on average, significantly wealthier than people who work in paid employment.” [via]
OMG! Who knew? Their research indicates that entrepreneurs represent 9% of households in the United States. This small group holds 38% of assets and 39% of total net worth. Of course Harvard’s analysis of the obvious concludes that “tax incentives or other initiatives intended to motivate the not-so-rich into entrepreneurship don’t really even things out, because even people with deep pockets can to reap the benefits of such programs.”
His point is that we shouldn’t ‘motivate’ the ‘not-so-rich’ to start businesses because rich people would be able to take advantage of the same programs. Huh? Let me get this straight, he is suggesting we shouldn’t help the poor due to risk that the rich might benefit as well? At the end of the day Ramana thinks that equality is reached only through equality of outcome. To bad he isn’t familiar with Sean Lemass phrase “a rising tide lifts all boats” used most famously by John F. Kennedy who employed the phrase to combat criticisms that his tax cuts would benefit mostly wealthy individuals. (Note to Ramana ~ the rich are going to get richer anyway, take a risk and help poor people get rich too)
How to: Stimulate the economy by March
January 28, 2008
The Bush administration, God love em, is planning to give $150 billion in rebates in the form of $600 and $1200 checks to individuals and families. The stimulus plan has a huge problem, it only works if people spend the money.
Earlier today Glen Hunter had a great idea, ’send your rebate to the troops’. I immediately got on board until my Dad pointed out that I wouldn’t be able to participate since I wasn’t getting a check (ironically, I am the most likely taxpayer to blow $1200 quickly). Then I had an idea:
What about doing both a) rewarding the troops and b) guaranteeing that economic stimulation would occur? We could simply give the entire $150B package to active duty military personnel resulting in rebates around $100K for each warrior. Who is more likely to blow $150K in a month than the average warrior? Give any 18-24 year old male $100K with the order to spend it in the next 30 days and I guarantee you will get immediate stimulation. We can count on our ‘economic warriors’ to help us out of our current malaise, while rewarding their service in a way our nation never has - with our treasure.
Great Idea ~ Send your rebate to the troops!
January 28, 2008
Glenn Hunter over at D had a great idea. Send your $600 rebate check to troops who are or have served in Iraq. Very nice idea. He suggest that Sessions or Johnson coordinate the effort, I second his suggestion:
OK, 117 million of us are getting a check ($600 per individual, $1,200 for couples) as part of the federal stimulus package, right? And, while we all “support” our U.S. troops fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s widely acknowledged that few of us civilians have sacrificed anything in the war effort, right? OK, so how about if we start a national campaign to turn over the free dough we’re about to get from the feds to the individual soldiers who’ve fought, or are fighting, on our behalf in the Middle East? Strictly voluntary, of course. Would any of our military-supporting local Congress members (Sessions? Johnson?) be willing to jump-start coordinating such a mammoth undertaking (probably through a private-sector fundraising administrator)?
Lawyers seek to muzzle bloggers by use of ©
January 26, 2008
The US District Court in Idaho has decided that lawyers can copyright their demand letters. The decision means that bloggers wont be able to post cease and desist letters on their blogs if the lawyer remembered to include a valid copyright notice. Look forward to seeing more ‘©’ on your legal correspondence.
According to Dozier, “The Court, in its decision, found that a copyright had been adequately established in a lawyer’s cease and desist letter. The unauthorized publication of the letter, therefore, can expose the publisher to liability. Statutory damages under the US Copyright Act can be as much as $150,000 per occurrence plus attorneys’ fees that can average $750,000 through trial. The publisher of the letter raised First Amendment and “fair use” arguments without success.”
Hm… I need to get out my Blacks Law Dictionary so I can recall what constitutes fair use. Update: Joe Gratz spent some time reading the actual decision and determined that the court DIDN’T agree that it was permissible to copyright a boilerplate legal document. In fact, the court suggested that they wouldn’t get into the merits of the copyright, instead focusing on whether or not the lawyers could force a website to reveal the identity of an anonymous poster. Check out the full post here.
Warren Buffett = Cheap Skate?
January 23, 2008
Last year at a Hillary Clinton fund raiser Buffett explained that his tax rate was lower than his secretary. He pointed out that he pays 17.7% and his secretary pays 30%. This didn’t surprise me, but what did surprise me was the fact that the third richest man in the country pays his secretary $60,000 per year. Are you kidding me? $60,000 per year for the third richest guy’s secretary? What a scrooge! Read more
Election Update
January 19, 2008
South Carolina Poll:
MCCAIN… 35%
HUCKABEE… 30%
THOMPSON… 15%
ROMNEY… 14%
PAUL… 4%
GIULIANI… 2%
In Nevada Hillary won the popular vote, but Obama won 13 out of 12 delegates to the national convention. The news is reporting Hillary won, but I hardly call that a win, at the end of the day it is a loss.
The Thompson Quandry
January 18, 2008
I can’t figure out why Fred Thompson isn’t at the top of the GOP list of candidates. Michael Gerson of the Washington Post doesn’t understand either suggesting, “I have often wondered why he is not in the top tier of candidates. He seems to have John McCain’s honesty, without his razor-sharp edges, and Mitt Romney’s conservatism, without his jaw-dropping inconsistencies. This contrast between Thompson’s large political talent and his poor political performance has led to persistent questions: Does he lack ambition? Energy?”
My Pick: Fred Thompson
January 14, 2008
I have struggled to decide who to back in the Republican primary. I have always liked Fred, but I was disappointed by his campaign. But the truth is Romney would do anything to get elected ~ his positions have changed with the tides, he doesn’t stand for anything. He is NOT a conservative. Rudy is hardly a Republican nor is Huckabee. McCain? He just pisses me off. So there you have it, my choice… Read more
Europe’s Richest Man: Putin?
December 20, 2007
Turns out Putin has amassed a huge fortune during his term in office. Estimates put his wealth at $40 billion+. The Guardian suggests,
Putin “effectively” controls 37% of the shares of Surgutneftegaz, an oil exploration company and Russia’s third biggest oil producer, worth $20bn, he says. He also owns 4.5% of Gazprom, and “at least 75%” of Gunvor, a mysterious Swiss-based oil trader, founded by Gennady Timchenko, a friend of the president’s, Belkovsky alleges. Asked how much Putin was worth, Belkovsky said: “At least $40bn. Maximum we cannot know. I suspect there are some businesses I know nothing about.” He added: “It may be more. It may be much more.
Looks like the Russian’s have a new aristocracy ~ members of the former KGB. Putin is their first Czar…
Global Warming ~ my son’s perspective
November 26, 2007
Last night the power went out, throwing our house into darkness. My six year old asked me why the lights and his Nintendo went off. I explained that the electricity went out. He then asked why electricity was so bad, especially if it allows us to see at night and play video games. I didn’t understand, but he went on to explain how electricity causes global warming and we must stop using electricity. He began to question the premise that he learned at school and suggested that he didn’t think electricity was so bad after all.
I laughed, but realized that most people are thinking and acting on global temperature data on the same level as my six year old. Anyone who dares to question any aspect of global warming is written off as a fool immediately. No one wants to look like a fool so we all play along. But at what cost? Our planet is on course to spend trillons of dollars over the next decades not on improving life for humans, but in an attempt to cool the planet. I like the studies that suggest that if human life was eradicated from the face of the earth it would result in a 1% decrease in global temperatures over the next decade.
According to recently published satellite figures, global temperatures have fallen over the last decade. By this year we reached lows not seen since 1983. Turns out the 1930s had four of the ten warmest years in the last 100 years, the warmest was in 1934. I will admit that I don’t understand the global warming/cooling issue, but what bothers me the most is that everyone else seems so certain about a topic that is so complex. Whenever everyone has something figured out, I start to think that they might have it wrong. Hopefully my son won’t be ridiculed for thinking critically about the issue ~ I know I will be…
Guns in Cars in Texas
September 23, 2007
The ACLU and the NRA made strange bedfellows on this one, but the two groups got together and championed a new law clarifying the legality of carrying a handgun in your car. Starting September 1st you can legally carry a handgun in your car without a license. The previous law required that you be “traveling”, but the new law drops this requirement. You must keep the gun out of plain view. Of course, if you are committing a crime or are a member of a street gang you can’t carry a firearm. Here is the revised section of the Texas Penal Code Section 46.02 “Unlawful Carrying Weapons.“
Thompson Going to Run! (duh)
August 31, 2007
Sarah Stirland has the story in Wired titled, “Fred Thompson Pre-Announces Himself, Hoping for a Multiplier Effect.” Most interesting part of the story? She used one of my photos from Fred’s visit to Dallas earlier this summer. Not one of my best photos, but hey who’s complaining?
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